Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for resource decision makers, especially in the context environmental determination. Two change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow temperature: RCP 8.5, most pessimistic with regards change, 4.5, more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak 2040. periods, 2018–2050 2051–2100, also evaluated. In Canada, number modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced higher winter lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological model was calibrated validated Wilmot River, using historic data temperature. Total annual precipitation region found remain stable 4.5 increase over time 8.5. Median stream expected present levels low months August September. However, increased variability led numbers periodic extreme events little frequency high events. effective four-fold greater an approximate mean difference 4 °C, while only 1 °C summer. Overall implications native coldwater fishes abstraction are not severe, except potential variability, hence flow/high